Serie A Betting Prediction: Crucial Battles for Survival as Venezia Faces Fiorentina, Atalanta Hosts Roma

Posted : 12 May 2025

On Monday, May 12th, 2025, Serie A presents a dramatic double-header with major implications at both ends of the league table. The first match features Venezia FC hosting ACF Fiorentina in a tense relegation-versus-Europe clash, while the late game pits Atalanta against AS Roma in a direct battle for Champions League qualification. Both fixtures offer high-stakes narratives and betting intrigue, with teams grappling with form, fatigue, and key absences as the season nears its climax.

Venezia FC vs ACF Fiorentina

The match kicks off with a crucial match at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo as relegation-threatened Venezia FC host ACF Fiorentina, who are chasing European qualification. Venezia are second from bottom in 19th place with 26 points from 35 games, and only three fixtures left to save their Serie A status. Their recent form includes a lone win, three draws, and one loss from their last five games – results that underline both their resilience and their struggle to secure full points.

Venezia’s overall campaign has been troubled. They’ve scored only 28 goals while conceding 46, resulting in a goal difference of -18. At home, their record stands at four wins, five draws, and eight losses, averaging just 0.76 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per match. The team’s inability to win – with only one victory in their last 19 league games – reflects the uphill task they face. Offensively, Finnish striker Joel Pohjanpalo (6 goals) remains their most consistent threat, supported by Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, who has 4 goals and 3 assists.

Fiorentina, on the other hand, sit in 9th place with 59 points and are fighting to qualify for the Europa or Conference League. Their recent form has been inconsistent with two wins, one draw, and two losses across all competitions. They recently exited the UEFA Conference League in a draining two-legged tie against Real Betis, which went into extra time. Their league matches have included a 2-1 home win over Empoli and a 2-1 away victory against Cagliari. Their away form is modest, with six wins, four draws, and seven losses.

However, Fiorentina are hit hard by injuries and suspensions. Moise Kean, their top scorer with 17 goals, is suspended. Danilo Cataldi, Marin Pongracic, Yacine Adli, and Nicolo Zaniolo are all unavailable due to injury or suspension. Goalkeeper David De Gea is also out. In contrast, Venezia are missing Richie Sagrado and Michael Svoboda to long-term injuries, while midfielder Kike Pérez is likely fit after a facial injury scare.

Historically, Fiorentina have a stronger record, with 9 wins in 17 Serie A meetings. Yet, Venezia surprisingly hold the upper hand in home games, winning 8 of 13 home matches against Fiorentina in the top division. In their most recent encounter on August 25, 2024, the teams played out a 0-0 draw.

Both teams are expected to line up in a 3-5-2 formation. For Venezia, Radu should start in goal, with defenders Candé, Idzes, and Schingtienne. The midfield will likely include Zerbin, Pérez, Busio, Nicolussi Caviglia, and Haps, with Yeboah and Gytkjaer leading the line. Fiorentina will probably counter with Terracciano in goal, and a defense of Kayode, Milenkovic, and Martinez Quarta. Midfield support will come from Biraghi, Dodô, Arthur, and Duncan, while Bonaventura and Gonzalez support Belotti in attack.

Betting odds reflect Fiorentina’s favoritism, with moneyline odds around +145 to +160, while Venezia are priced at +185 to +200. The draw is around +210. The Under 2.5 goals market is favored at -160, and “Both Teams Not to Score” is also heavily backed, suggesting a low-scoring game. Given Fiorentina’s depleted squad and Venezia’s desperation, a value bet could be Venezia to win or draw (double chance), while a narrow 1-1 draw or 2-1 Fiorentina win is seen as the most probable scoreline.

Atalanta vs AS Roma

The second fixture on Monday promises fireworks as Atalanta welcome AS Roma to the Gewiss Stadium in a match with major Champions League implications. Atalanta currently sit third with 68 points from 35 matches, boasting a superior goal difference of +40, having scored 71 goals and conceded only 31. Their form over the last five matches includes a dominant 4-0 win at Monza, a 1-1 draw with Lecce, a 1-0 win at AC Milan, a 2-0 home win over Bologna, and a 1-0 defeat to Lazio.

Despite their solid season, Atalanta have had some home inconsistencies, winning only once at home in 2025. Nevertheless, their four-match unbeaten run shows resilience and consistency. Their coach, Gian Piero Gasperini, has enjoyed strong records against Roma, winning four of the last five meetings. In the head-to-head matchup, Atalanta have been dominant, with four wins in the last six meetings and a 2-0 victory in Rome in their most recent clash. At home, they have won four of their last five matches against Roma and seven of the last 10 overall.

Roma, led by Claudio Ranieri, have been on a remarkable run themselves, winning 10 of their last 12 league games and remaining unbeaten since mid-December. They are in 6th place with 63 points and a goal difference of +18, having scored 50 and conceded 32. Their current three-match winning streak includes three consecutive 1-0 victories – notably against Fiorentina, Inter Milan, and Lecce. Roma have a strong defensive record, especially on the road, where they’ve recorded five 1-0 wins in their last six away matches.

The team’s strength lies in their compact defense and tactical discipline. Roma’s away record this season stands at six wins, seven draws, and four losses, with recent away results emphasizing their ability to grind out narrow wins. Their recent form makes them a difficult opponent to break down.

Injury issues affect both sides. Atalanta will likely be without key attacker Ademola Lookman due to an Achilles problem. They are also missing Gianluca Scamacca, Giorgio Scalvini, Sead Kolasinac, and Juan Cuadrado due to injuries, while Isak Hien is suspended. Roma’s lineup concerns are less severe, although they still have to manage fitness carefully during this final stretch of the season.

Atalanta’s attacking strength will depend on the likes of Charles De Ketelaere, Teun Koopmeiners, and Mario Pašalić, while Roma will look to Paulo Dybala and Lorenzo Pellegrini to lead their attacking thrust. The midfield battle between Roma’s Bryan Cristante and Atalanta’s Ederson may prove pivotal.

Betting markets lean slightly toward Atalanta, given their higher league position and recent dominance over Roma. However, Roma’s defensive solidity and form offer bettors valuable underdog potential. A tightly-contested match is expected, with predictions leaning towards a 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline, in favor of either side.

With so much on the line, both games should deliver high tension, drama, and significant movements in the Serie A table. Check betting odds here.

Serie A Betting Prediction: Crucial Battles for Survival as Venezia Faces Fiorentina, Atalanta Hosts Roma

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