Home-Court Disadvantage? NBA Playoffs Show Rising Trend in Away Wins

Posted : 13 May 2025

The 2024 NBA Playoffs are challenging the long-standing belief that home-court advantage plays a pivotal role in postseason success. As the second round unfolded, 11 of the first 16 games resulted in road victories, continuing a trend that began in the first round.

This shift suggests a narrowing gap between top teams in both conferences, fueled by an influx of talent and depth. The phenomenon isn't confined to quiet arenas either; venues like Boston’s TD Garden and Indiana’s Gainbridge Fieldhouse have seen their raucous energy fail to guarantee wins for the home teams.

Teams that typically rely on crowd energy to maintain momentum have found themselves vulnerable. For instance, the Knicks managed to beat the Celtics twice in Boston before losing at home, and the Pacers won two in Cleveland only to falter when they returned to Indiana.

This changing dynamic indicates that emotional surges from home crowds are no longer as decisive. Instead, road teams appear more composed, focused, and capable of seizing the moment regardless of venue—a notion Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton echoed when he said, “A series doesn’t start until someone wins on the road.”

Data from recent seasons supports this trend. Since 2018 (excluding the 2020 bubble), home teams have won no more than 60% of playoff games, a significant drop from historical averages. Regular-season figures mirror this pattern, with home wins dipping to just 54% in four of the past five years.

Coaches like Steve Kerr believe that the proliferation of three-point shooting has dramatically altered the game’s rhythm. The long ball enables teams to swing momentum quickly, making it harder for home teams to settle into a groove or ride the crowd’s energy over extended stretches.

Denver’s interim coach David Adelman added that today’s players are less fazed by the pressure of playing away. Growing up in competitive youth circuits with frequent travel, many athletes have become mentally insulated from hostile environments.

Furthermore, three-point shooting disproportionately affects outcomes—teams that hit more threes win roughly two-thirds of the time. Even strong home-court teams like Boston have struggled, as seen in their record-setting 45 missed threes in Game 1 against New York. While it may be premature to declare home advantage obsolete, its influence is undoubtedly waning, making talent, strategy, and composure the true determinants of playoff success.

Home-Court Disadvantage? NBA Playoffs Show Rising Trend in Away Wins

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